taleb black swan 02 03.mp3
-
alina zeranska the art of polish cooking -
amy recob -
andrea caceres -
anne varichon -
bj nowak -
bj nowak one more thing -
bloodlines by nelson demille -
brick puffinton -
bugabees friends with allergies -
chadwick moore -
color charts a history -
DK -
DK Simply AI Facts Made Fast -
DK Visual -
extinction by douglas preston -
facing cancer -
how to eat chocolate sarah ford -
i went walking -
I'll never let you go -
jan pienkowski -
john grisham the exchange -
kelley armstrong -
kelley armstrong hemlock island -
little monsters jan pienkowski -
marc william palen -
marianne richmond -
megan e bryant -
miles hyman shirley jackson -
my dog just speaks spanish andrea caceres -
national audubon society -
not forever but for now by chuck palahniuk -
pax economica -
robert b parkers broken trust -
sarah ogilvie -
shirley jackson's the lottery -
stephen king you like it darker -
strawberry shortcake berry blossom festival -
sue williams -
taco tuesday -
the dictionary people sarah ogilvie -
theodore stern mikkael sekeres -
todd grimson -
todd grimson brand new cherry flavor -
Troilus and Cressida -
tucker -
walt hickey -
william shakespeare -
Yangsze Choo -
Yangsze Choo The Fox Wife -
you are what you watch
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrated By David Chandler
Unabridged Length: 14 hrs and 20 mins
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.